World Energy Outlook

Published: November 10 2009 15:02 | Last updated: November 10 2009 21:07

It was barely 10 years ago that a well-reasoned cover story in The Economist told us we were “drowning in oil” and that its price could drop by more than half to $5 a barrel. As everybody now knows, prices rose tenfold before peaking last summer. There are just so many moving parts to the energy market that making forecasts is a mug’s game. If exhaustive detail is a measure of credibility, though, few sources equal the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, published on Wednesday.

Coinciding with the first time since 1981 that global energy use has declined, 2009’s report is not complacent about future energy supply and environmental challenges. Like many forecasts, though, it makes the mistake of extrapolating recent trends too freely. For example, the IEA expects global oil production to rise from last year’s 85m barrels to 105m by 2030 while acknowledging that about two-thirds of this will come from fields yet to be found or developed. But at what cost?

In just the past decade, exploration spending has nearly tripled in order to maintain a similar rate of supply growth. Leaving aside arguments that the IEA’s forecast skirts the edge of what is geologically feasible, incremental barrels are getting pricier to find and, once out of the ground, are more coveted. The IEA expects real oil prices to hit $87 a barrel by 2015 and $115 by 2030 to make this all possible. What about the possibility that supply will falter and that a far higher clearing price will instead do the trick? Living with $300 crude is no more outlandish than suggesting a decade ago that $80 would be the new normal. The payoff from conserving oil could soon outstrip that of drilling for it.

Just as forecasters failed to appreciate the market’s reaction to low prices a decade ago, they may be underestimating how we will react to increasingly expensive oil tomorrow.

油價預測一笑置之

猶記得《經濟學人》雜誌曾刊載一篇頭頭是道的封面故事，告訴我們石油供應源源不絕足以把我們淹沒，油價或暴跌逾五成至每桶5美元。屈指一算，那不過是十年前的事，如今眾所周知，油價此期間飆升十倍，至去夏見頂。能源市場的變數太多，預測油價走勢只會徒勞無功。不過，若預測的可信性能以涵蓋資料的巨細無遺程度來衡量，則沒有多少份預測報告能與國際能源機構（IEA）周三公布的《世界能源展望》匹敵。

縱使今年環球能源耗用量自1981年以來首次下跌，但報告並沒迴避未來能源供應及環境挑戰兩大問題。然而，與不少預測一樣，IEA 的報告亦犯上過分着眼當前趨勢作出推斷的錯誤。例如，機構預期環球油產將由去年的每日八千五百萬桶，增長至2030年的一億零五百萬桶；但同時亦承認二十年後的油產約三分二來自仍未發現或開發的油井。取得這些新油產到底涉及多少成本？

為了保持供應增長，過去十年的開採成本已增加了近兩倍。姑且別談 IEA 的預測沒有論及地質開採可行性的問題，提高現有油田產量的成本節節上升，開採所得亦愈來愈搶手，這些因素報告均沒考慮。IEA 預測，要達致供求平衡，實質油價2015年時將升至每桶87美元，2030年將攀升至115美元。但若供應出現阻滯，油價須進一步上揚才達致供求平衡，怎麼辦？每桶原油索價300美元的講法，不見得比十年前預言80美元將成為油市新常規離譜；在不久的將來，節約用油可能比開發油源更有好處。

正如十年前的預測沒有考慮到市場對油價低企所作的反應，今天的預測亦可能低估了我們面對未來日益昂貴的石油採取的應變方法■